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Bitcoin: stock-to-flow, lengthening cycles, and diminishing returns

Benjamin Cowen
801K subscribers

The price of BitcoinBitcoin1$ 60,558.230.18%-6.01%-15.89%details over the last 12 years has been full of boom and bust cycles. In an attempt to make sense of these macro price movements, several models have been developed over the years.
One of the most popular models is the Stock-To-Flow model (S2F), authored by PlanB. In this video, PlanB and I discuss the similarities between Stock-To-Flow, Stock-To-Flow Cross Asset (S2FX), Lengthening Cycles, and Diminishing Returns.

We discuss how the various models are constrained and what they are attempting to predict. Perhaps there are more similarities than differences and it may take another full cycle to see which model the price of Bitcoin trends towards. Does S2F allow for lengthening cycles? Can you have lengthening cycles but no diminishing returns? We discuss all of this and more!

0:00 Intro
1:00 Who is PlanB? What is Stock-To-Flow(S2F)?
3:48 S2F Formula/Ratio for Bitcoin
5:05 The S2F Chart/Model
7:00 S2F Across Assets
7:45 The Basic Thesis
8:53 The Implication
10:18 Beyond the S2F of $100T
11:40 S2F as a Function of Time/Blocks
12:50 S2F vs. Lengthening Cycles Theory(LCT)
14:30 The S2FX Model
14:50 Tops, Bottoms and Averages
17:45 PlanB S2F Predictions
21:00 Where’s the Top? Where’s the Bottom?
23:23 “$100K by Christmas & $500K in 2022”
24:15 Dubious Speculation
25:00 Bitcoin During the Genesis of S2F
27:00 Lengthening Cycles & Diminishing Returns
28:25 As Measured from the Halving
31:00 As Measured from the Cycle Bottom
34:00 Cautious in the $100K to $200K Range
36:10 The Misconception Between LCT and a Super Cycle
37:10 S2F and Logarithmic Regression
38:56 HODLers Take Note!
40:00 S2F vs. LCT & DRT Take Two
44:40 Diminishing Returns Formula
45:50 3 Data Points (Red Line) vs. 1000s of Data Points (Green Line)
47:30 Two Theories Converge
50:00 10X From Here (?)
50:50 The Beauty of Mathematics
51:55 Similarities to Previous Cycles
54:45 “Lines, Peaks & Bottoms are Outliers”
55:55 Reasons Why PlanB moved from Logarithmic Regression to S2F & S2FX
1:05:24 Extrapolation vs. Interpolation
1:06:20 All Models are Wrong but Some are Useful
1:08:55 S2F After Halvings
1:10:40 Could the Last Cycle be an Outlier?
1:12:35 S2F Meets DRT… “Time Will Tell”
1:14:44 My Short-Term Views
1:17:11 Dubious Speculation Take Two
1:18:55 Lengthening Cycles & Diminishing Returns are Not Mutually Exclusive
1:20:27 Overlapping Views… $64K was NOT the Peak
1:22:20 Tops, Bottoms, Averages and Wiggle Room
1:25:30 The Next 6 to 18 Months will be Interesting & Helpful
1:26:38 The Region that Will Distinguish the Models
1:28:00 The Bitcoin Daily S2F & Price Chart
1:29:00 No Super Cycle Take Two
1:29:55 Bouncing Back and a Six Figure Bitcoin
1:30:20 Final Thoughts Outro

Disclaimer: The information presented within this video is NOT financial advice.

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